The Oscar race is always full of drama, but this year? It’s absolute chaos. From shocking controversies to unexpected winners, the battle for Best Picture at the 2024 Academy Awards has taken some wild turns. Just when we thought we had a front-runner, a scandal rocked the season. Just when we counted a film out, it made a roaring comeback.
So, where do things stand now? Let’s break down the biggest surprises, controversies, and shake-ups that have turned this Oscar season on its head.
It wasn’t long ago that "Emilia Pérez" seemed unstoppable. The film led with 13 Oscar nominations, won big at the European Film Awards, and had solid support from different voting blocs. But then—the controversy hit.
Karla Sofía Gascón, one of the film’s stars, found herself at the center of a social media firestorm when old tweets resurfaced. Instead of quickly addressing the situation, Gascón took a defiant stance, keeping the controversy alive just as key awards bodies were voting. The damage was swift.
Now, all eyes are on the BAFTA Awards. Can the film bounce back? Since the British voting body shares a significant overlap with the Academy, its performance there could be a last-minute lifeline—or the final nail in the coffin.
While "Emilia Pérez" struggled, another film stepped into the spotlight—"Anora".
At the start of the year, Sean Baker’s dark comedy seemed like an underdog. It went home empty-handed at the Golden Globes, and when the Critics Choice Awards were postponed due to the Los Angeles wildfires, it felt like its momentum had stalled.
Then, in a single weekend, everything changed.
Historically, any film that wins at both the Producers Guild and Directors Guild becomes the Best Picture front-runner. Of course, there are exceptions—like when "1917" won both but still lost the Oscar to "Parasite" in 2020—but at this stage, "Anora" has the best momentum of any contender.
With "Anora" in the lead, what about the other contenders? A few films are still fighting for a shot at glory.
"Conclave" doesn’t have the loudest buzz, but it’s playing the long game. The film is well-liked across the board, even if it isn’t many voters’ top choice. That could work to its advantage.
Why? Because the Oscar voting system uses a preferential ballot, where voters rank their picks instead of choosing just one. If "Conclave" racks up enough second and third-place votes, it could sneak past bigger favorites and pull off an upset.
Musicals are a tough sell for Best Picture, and "Wicked" faces an uphill battle—it didn’t even score nominations for Best Director or Best Screenplay. But there’s one thing working in its favor: Hollywood loves a box office hit.
Some voters might rally behind "Wicked" simply because its success is good for the industry. Could it be enough to change the game? Probably not, but stranger things have happened at the Oscars.
If there was one shocking loss this season, it was Brady Corbet’s "The Brutalist".
Many industry insiders predicted that Corbet—who already won Best Director at the Golden Globes—would take home the DGA Award. But when the moment came, the trophy went to Sean Baker for "Anora".
This loss has left "The Brutalist" in a precarious position. Can it recover? It’ll need major wins at the BAFTA Awards to stay in the conversation, but as of now, its Oscar hopes are fading fast.
One of the biggest surprises in this Oscar race is happening in the Best International Film category.
For weeks, it seemed like "Emilia Pérez" had the category locked down. But with the film now facing controversy, there’s a new challenger: Brazil’s "I’m Still Here".
The film, directed by Walter Salles, tells the powerful story of an activist whose husband disappears under Brazil’s military dictatorship. With Fernanda Torres delivering an Oscar-worthy performance, the film has gained massive support—especially from Brazilian voters and international film enthusiasts.
With "Emilia Pérez" losing momentum, "I’m Still Here" has a real shot at stealing the Oscar.
The 2024 Oscar race is anything but predictable. "Anora" now leads the pack, but with BAFTAs and SAG Awards still to come, there’s time for more surprises.
Could "Emilia Pérez" bounce back? Will "Conclave" or "Wicked" shock the world? And in the Best International Film category, will "I’m Still Here" capitalize on the chaos?
One thing’s for sure—this year’s Oscars will be one of the most exciting in recent history.
Who do you think will win Best Picture? Drop your predictions in the comments! ??
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